Heart failure (HF) is a heterogeneous, chronic clinical syndrome which typically manifests later in life. It has been estimated that approximately 1m people are currently living with HF in the UK, with around 200k developing the condition each year [1]. The characteristic symptoms of HF comprise breathlessness, ankle swelling and fatigue, and can be associated with a wide range of medical conditions, making HF notoriously difficult to diagnose in primary care settings. As such, it has been estimated that almost 80% of patients with HF are only diagnosed following a visit to hospital [2], by which point their disease has become much more severe, leading to substantial impacts upon their quality of life and chance of survival [3].

SarvasHF is an AI model intended for use in GP practices. The model can predict the risk that a patient will develop HF in the future, using data from their medical history. If effective, this model could be used to target patients at high risk of developing HF on a large scale, enabling them to access specialist care much earlier than is typical. It has been estimated that approximately 2% of the total annual NHS budget is dedicated to the treatment of patients with HF, the majority of which are driven by hospitalisation [4]. As such, new tools which could allow for earlier diagnosis and treatment of HF could substantially improve quality of life for those affected and ease the burden of this disease on our health service.

[1] Conrad N, Judge A, Tran J, Mohseni H, Hedgecott D, Crespillo AP, Allison M, Hemingway H, Cleland JG, McMurray JJ, Rahimi K. Temporal trends and patterns in heart failure incidence: a population-based study of 4 million individuals. The Lancet. 2018 Feb 10;391(10120):572-80.
[2] Bottle A, Kim D, Aylin P, Cowie MR, Majeed A, Hayhoe B. Routes to diagnosis of heart failure: observational study using linked data in England. Heart. 2018 Apr 1;104(7):600-5.
[3] Kwok CS, Satchithananda D, Ahmed FZ, Chue CD, Barker D, Patwala A, Duckett S, Mallen CD. A critical evaluation of patient pathways and missed opportunities in treatment for heart failure. Journal of Cardiovascular Development and Disease. 2022 Dec 12;9(12):455.
[4] Long L, Mordi IR, Bridges C, Sagar VA, Davies EJ, Coats AJ, Dalal H, Rees K, Singh SJ, Taylor RS. Exercise‐based cardiac rehabilitation for adults with heart failure. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2019(1).